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Final Financial Reform Bill Passes House

• Jun 30, 2010 from huffpolitics in Politics
  WASHINGTON Nearly two years after a Wall Street meltdown left the economy reeling, the House on Wednesday passed a massive overhaul of financial regulations that would extend the government's reach from storefront thrifts to the executive suites of Manhattan.
  
  Senate support for the far-reaching bill remained in flux, however. The Senate was forced to delay its vote to mid-July, denying President Barack Obama a victory before Independence Day. Democrats struggled to secure the votes of a handful of Republican senators even after meeting their demands and backing down on a $19 billion tax on big banks and hedge funds.
  The legislation, swelling to more than 2,000 pages, would rewrite the nation's regulatory books. Simple supermarket purchases and exotic derivatives trades would be subject to new laws. And the entire financial system would be placed on a risk watch in hopes of thwarting the next threat of a financial crisis.
  
  Obama hailed the vote as "a victory for every American who has been affected by the recklessness and irresponsibility that led to the loss of millions of jobs and trillions in wealth."
  
  The 237-192 House tally broke largely along party lines but attracted more support than in December when no Republicans voted for the House version of the bill. The new legislation combines the House bill with one passed by the Senate last month.
  
  "Today, I rise with a clear message that the party is over," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared. "No longer again will recklessness on Wall Street cause joblessness on Main Street. No longer will the risky behavior of the few threaten the financial stability of our families, our businesses and our economy as a whole."
  
  Republicans portrayed the bill as a vast overreach of government power that would do little to prevent future bailouts of failing financial institutions. They complained that it failed to place tighter restrictions on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage giants forced into huge federal bailouts after their questionable lending helped trigger the housing and economic meltdowns.
  
  "This legislation is a clear attack on capital formation in America," said Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia, the second-ranking House Republican. "It purports to prevent the next financial crisis, but it does so by vastly expanding the power of the same regulators who failed to stop the last one."
  
  Only three Republicans voted for the bill: Joseph Cao of Louisiana, Mike Castle of Delaware and Walter Jones of North Carolina. Nineteen Democrats voted against it, eight fewer than in December.
  
  As predictable as the House vote may have been, the Senate was a study in unpredictability.
  
  House and Senate negotiators were forced to reconvene Tuesday to remove a $19 billion tax on large banks and hedge funds, hoping to overcome objections from Sens. Scott Brown, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, all Republicans who voted for the Senate version last month.
  
  Democrats inserted the tax late last week as they assembled a combined House-Senate bill, catching big banks by surprise. Brown was the first to complain and threatened to vote against the bill if the tax remained in the final measure.
  
  Desperate to hold at least 60 votes to beat back procedural hurdles, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd and Obama administration officials scrambled to drop the tax and devise another means of financing the bill's cost.
  
  In the end, House and Senate negotiators, voting along party lines, agreed to pay for the bill with $11 billion generated by ending the unpopular Troubled Asset Relief Program the $700 billion bank bailout created in the fall of 2008 at the height of the financial scare.
  
  They also agreed to increase premium rates paid by commercial banks to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to insure bank deposits. The increase would not affect banks with assets under $10 billion.
  
  On Wednesday, Collins issued a statement saying she was now inclined to vote for the bill.
  
  But Brown remained uncommitted, saying he needed Congress' weeklong July 4 recess to examine the details of the bill. He did credit Dodd for "thinking outside the box" in finding an alternative.
  
  Earlier Wednesday, Obama had decried Republican opposition to the bill.
  
  In remarks in Racine, Wis., the president took aim at House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio for remarking in a newspaper interview that the financial regulation bill was like using a nuclear weapon on an ant.
  
  "If the Republican leader is that out of touch with the struggles facing the American people, he should come here to Racine and ask people if they think the financial crisis was an ant," Obama said.
  
  The American Bankers Association denounced the bill, and its president and CEO, Edward Yingling, vowed to continue to make the industry's case to the Senate.
  
  "Many small banks are telling us they will simply have to sell out to larger institutions that have the staff to deal...

House Prediction, September 13 Edition: Democrats 218, Republicans 217

• Sep 12, 2010 from dagblog(dagblog) in *
  Whether Nancy Pelosi or John Boehner leads the House of Representatives is a difference fraught with consequence.(Don'tcha think?) Will Barack Obama replay the second half of Bill Clinton's first term, beating back government shutdowns and vetoing legislation, while facing a series of investigations launched by Speaker Boehner? Or will the Democrats weather an awful economy, and populist anger and anxiety, and preserve a thin majority?The New York Times is having an argument with itself on this question. Its House election page suggests that Democrats have 168 seats firmly in their grasp, with 47 more leaning their way, and 33 more jump balls. From that, you'd extrapolate a prediction of 231 or so seats, which is merely a loss of 24. (Some of that is because horserace predictions overvalue past performance, just as sports preview magazines tend to predict that last year's champ repeats.)Meanwhile, fivethirtyeight.com founder Nate Silver, now blogging for the Times, puts the mean outcome at 209 Democratic seats, for a loss of 46 and with it a loss of control of the House. Nate is on the more popular side of the issue, as he opines that Democrats are 66% likely to lose the House. I have reviewed data concerning all of the House races thought to be in play, and provide below my predictions. So as not to bury the lede, this piece makes the case in between that of the two NYT cases: I see the Democrats narrowly retaining the House. Here's how I got there. Part One: All Tied Up at 168-168 Per the New York Times, there are 168 safe seats on both sides. This already tells you something, as there are 255 Democratic seats, and 168 safe (meaning that there are 87 Democratic seats thought to be in play), and there are 178 Republican seats, with 168 safe, meaning that only ten Republican seats are in play. I did not accept this assumption uncritically, but instead sifted through races to see what supposedly "safe" races might be in play. The closest I could come was WA-02, where incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen ran 50-46 behind GOP challenger John Koster in a GOP-funded quasi-push poll. However, Washington has an open primary system in which both parties' voters vote at once, and Larsen not only had more votes than did Koster, but the non-Larsen-or-Koster vote for second-tier major party candidates was pretty heavily Democratic. If Larsen is the least safe of the safe Democrats (Nate Silver projects him winning by a 51-47 margin with a 74% chance to win, which I think understates the probability of victory), then I'm good with the NYT's 168/168 base. (NC-04, rated safe by the NYT, shows one poll funded by the R's with a 47-46 R advantage, which Real Clear Politics believes is likewise off.) Next, we move on to the 99 races in play, which we separate into different categories. Part Two: The Weird Races: Four Likely Democratic Pickups In 2010, this will be a brief discussion. The pickup possibilities are in Delaware, Illinois, Hawaii, and Louisiana. First, in LA-02, Rep. Anh Cao (R), elected in a D+20 district by a 50-47 margin in a post-election day runoff after the Democratic incumbent, Jefferson, was caught committing crimes. In this heavily D and heavily African-American New Orleans district, Cao will face African-American Democrat Cedric Richmond. Good luck with that, Anh. In HI-01, equally accidental GOP Congressman Charles Djou won a squeaker special election among himself and two Democrats in heavily Democratic Hawaii. Nate inexplicably rates this race as a jump ball, his model apparently overvaluing incumbency. Djou is toast. In DE-01, moderate Democrat John Carney, who has won statewide elections, is favored to replace incumbent Mike Castle, who is running for Delaware's open Senate seat. Polls suggest that Carney is in good shape (Nate pegs Carney as the most likely Dem pickup, which to me makes little sense, but it corroborates the likelihood he wins.) The final of the four races in which the Dems may win a new seat is a true jump ball. In IL-10, Dan Seals, the Democrat, won 47% of the vote against Rep. Mark Kirk in both the 2006 and 2008 wave elections, which are long gone. Seals runs now against a conservative political neophyte, businessman Robert Dold. The district, won by Obama in 2008 with 61% of the vote, trends wealthy and educated, and many of the GOP's national issues don't resonate as well in affluent suburban Chicago. Seals' own polling shows him up 13, and picking up 22% of Kirk's voters. I'm buying it, though barely. Here, the Democrats will pick up four seats. This puts the Democrats up 172-168, and means the Republicans have to flip 42 seats. But can they? Yes. Will they? Very hard to say.Part Three: Wherein Republicans Cruise to Fifteen Easy Wins All but one of these are pickups, many of first-term Democratic seats. AZ-05: Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) in a rematch against David Schweikert (R) in J.D. Hayworth's old district. Mitchell won 53-44 in 2008 in a wave election. NYT recently...

Fazendo as Idéias Acontecerem « Blog do Nei

• Sep 08, 2010 from neigrando(Nei Grando) in Business
  O texto, em português, é um resumo do livro “Making Ideas Happen - Overcoming the Obstacles Between Vision and Reality” de Scott Belsky, fundador e CEO da Behance, empresa dedicada a capacitar e organizar o mundo criativo. O livro ensina a por em prática suas idéias e sonhos, com: projetos/ações, liderança e parcerias. Procura também responder a questão: como posso permanecer organizado no meio do caos do dia a dia realizando tarefas, gerenciando projetos e permanecendo com a mente clara o suficiente para ainda ser criativo?

GOP 'Pledge to America' gets varying responses from Louisiana politicians

• Sep 23, 2010 from nolanews(NOLA.com) in World News
  Perspectives reflect district makeups
  
  
  Representing very different districts, Republican Reps. Steve Scalise of Jefferson and Anh "Joseph" Cao of New Orleans, had very different responses Thursday to the House GOP's new "Pledge to America."
  
  View full sizeJ. Scott Applewhite, The Associated PressThe GOP 'Pledge to America' borrows from the 'Contract with America' developed by Newt Gingrich for the House Republicans successful 1994 campaign, Scalise, whose 1st Congressional District is highly conservative and heavily Republican, immediately embraced the 21-page document, saying it is important that Republicans show what they would do if returned to the majority besides oppose President Barack Obama's policies.
  
  Cao, whose district is heavily Democratic and continues to strongly embrace the president and his policies, says he is fine with some aspects of the pledge, especially provisions designed to strengthen small businesses, but opposes others, such as the promise to replace the Obama health-care overhaul in part with health savings accounts.
  
  Not enough of his constituents, Cao said, have the money to buy into the savings accounts, even with tax breaks, making it an unsatisfactory alternative.
  
  "The last two years I have been all about the issue, not party, looking at how each issue will affect the people in my district," Cao said. "I don't ever conform to any particular ideology or to any particular pledge."
  
  State Rep. Cedric Richmond, D-New Orleans, Cao's Democratic opponent in the Nov. 2 election, said the problem is that Republicans, with Cao's re-election, would be closer to taking back the majority, and put GOP House leaders such as John Boehner, R-Ohio, in position to enact the pledge, which he said would be "disastrous" for New Orleans.
  
  "Whether he supports part of it or not, by voting for John Boehner for speaker he's helping to enact these provisions, including cutting federal funding that will hurt New Orleans," Richmond said.
  
  J. Scott Applewhite, The Associated PressHouse Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio, center, holds up a copy of the GOP agenda, 'A Pledge to America,' Thursday at a lumber yard in Sterling, Va. From left are, House Minority Whip Eric Cantor of Va., Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., Boehner, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., and Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah. Scalise said Republicans are showing that the party is ready to govern and, even more important, prepared to listen to the American people.
  
  "I don't think it is enough to say that we don't like what they stand for, we have to tell people what we would do," said Scalise, who believes Americans will support the GOP plan to retain all the Bush tax cuts, cut many discretionary programs to 2008 levels, repeal the Obama health-care package, support strong domestic oil and gas production and ease federal regulations.
  
  Cao said he supports, unlike Richmond, the GOP pledge's call to reclaim unspent funds from the $787 billion federal stimulus program. While Cao acknowledges the program generated $360 million for his district, he said that local taxpayers will end up "paying far more in taxes" to pay for it.
  
  In the 3rd Congressional District, Democratic nominee Ravi Sangisetty, a lawyer, said the pledge lacks fresh ideas.
  
  "It's more of the same we've come to expect from Washington," Sangisetty said. "The Republicans talk a good game about reducing spending, but they don't deliver. They offer no real solutions to put this country on the right path."
  
  The two Republicans running in the 3rd District's Oct. 2 GOP runoff, Jeff Landry and Hunt Downer, embraced the pledge, which borrows from the "Contract with America" developed by Newt Gingrich for the House Republican's successful 1994 campaign,
  
  "It's far and away the broadest reaching document that congressional leaders have put out since 1994," Landry, a lawyer, said.
  
  Buddy Boe, Downer's campaign manager, said the former Louisiana House speaker has put up his conservative agenda on his website that closely matches the GOP pledge.
  
  Democrats said the GOP pledge would return the nation to polices enacted during the George W. Bush administration, which they describe as a tax cuts for millionaires, deficit spending and lax oversight of Wall Street and the oil and gas industry.
  
  "Just as we expected, the Republican agenda has no new ideas and will take us right back to the exact same agenda that failed middle class families and small businesses," said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md.
  
  Rep. John Fleming, R-Minden, said the agenda reflects the new direction most Americans are demanding for their government.
  
  "The Pledge to America represents an agenda set by the American people, not by tone-deaf leaders in Washington," he said.
  
  Not all conservatives embraced the pledge. While the pledge borrows from tea party statements, calling on a return of the government to the people, it doesn't call for the major reduction of federal programs...

Robert Creamer: Time for the Pundits to Take a Deep Breath -Why Democrats Will Not be

• Sep 08, 2010 from insurancemake in *
  Two years ago today, just two months before the 2008 Election, John McCain led Barack Obama for President in the compilation of national polls assembled by Pollster.com. The Democratic polling project at Democracy Corps had McCain up by two points. As everyone knows, on Election Day Obama beat McCain 53% to 46%. A lot can change in 56 days.
  
  Time for the pundits and prognosticators to take a deep breath. Despite all of their dire predictions of Democratic demise, the Republicans have not yet seized control of either chamber and I, for one, predict that they won't any time soon.
  
  Democrats will certainly take losses in the coming Mid-terms. But the odds are good that they will emerge from the elections with working majorities in both houses.
  
  No one doubts that pulling the economy out of the massive ditch into which it careened under George Bush has, and continues to be, a Herculean task. It is, of course, a task that has been made much more difficult by the virtually unified opposition of Republicans to Democratic initiatives to energize the economy. Two years of economic pain have made voters unhappy.
  
  And this difficulty is compounded by the natural tendency of voters to turn out Members of Congress from the President's party in the first Mid-term after his inauguration.
  
  However, six major factors will work to limit Democratic losses.
  
  1). The voters do not view Republicans as the answer to America's problems. And in fact, a late August NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that they actually have a less favorable view of Republicans than Democrats.
  
  It is true that only 36% viewed Democrats positively compared with 43% who view Democrats negatively. But a mere 30% view Republicans positively compared with 43% who view them negatively.
  
  In the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, voters were split down the middle (43% to 43%) as to whether they preferred Republican or Democratic control of Congress. There is every indication that this will be the Republican high water mark as voters begin to focus in on the race and Democrats begin to introduce them -- and their beliefs -- to their Republican opponents.
  
  2).The Republicans' major institutional allies are viewed with even more approbation than the Party itself. The economy has made voters sour on elites of all sorts. They are furious with Wall Street (10% positive to 53% negative), Corporate America (12% positive to 42% negative), and the Health Insurance Industry (12% positive to 56% negative).
  
  If Democratic candidates do their job of connecting their Republican opponents with their base constituencies, their support will plummet.
  
  The critical issue for Democrats is to establish that they are populist outsiders, not elitist insiders. That dynamic is much more important in the coming election than whether a candidate is a Republican or Democrat.
  
  3). There is not a large-scale inclination among voters to reject progressive-Democratic values and adopt conservative-Republican values in their place. When the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll asked if Government should do more, or whether it is doing too many things, voters divided evenly 47% to 47%. When presented a core Democratic and core Republican message, the same number of voters (25% ) found the Democratic message very convincing as those who found the Republican message very convincing.
  
  4). Elections are not simply referenda on the state of the country or the economy. They are choices between two candidates. In a generic context, voters can be angry and dismissive about a current officeholder if they are unhappy with the current state of their lives. But if Democrats do their jobs right, each race will be turned into a choice between two living, breathing people. The more that voters focus on the Republican alternative, the less abstract that choice will become - the more they will become acquainted with the qualities of the alternative. Whereas once they might have been happy to throw the incumbent out, they will become increasingly focused on the fact that he or she will be replaced by someone else who has negatives of his own.
  
  Voters cast their ballots for people - not concepts. One of the big advantages for Democrats this cycle is that many Republican nominees are politically inexperienced radical extremists whose views - once voters learn them - are completely outside of the mainstream of American politics.
  
  The best known are Tea Party-Republican Senate candidates like Sharron Angle in Nevada who wants to replace Medicare with vouchers for private insurance, Rand Paul in Kentucky who opposes the 1964 Civil Rights Act, Joe Miller in Alaska who wants to phase out Social Security, and then there is the potential nominee in Delaware, Christine O'Donnell, who opposes masturbation.
  
  And there are many lesser-known House candidates who are just as extreme in their views - and who have no economic...